Nigeria at 66: From Economic Stabilisation to Shared Prosperity
As Nigeria marks 66 years of independence, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) recognises how profoundly the economy has changed. Agriculture was once the dominant source of livelihoods and exports. Petroleum subsequently reshaped public finance, while telecommunications, banking, trade, construction, entertainment and digital services expanded the range of opportunities available to Nigerian businesses and youths. Large investments in cement, fertiliser and refining have also demonstrated the potential for production at scale.
Yet the country’s economic transformation remains incomplete. Nigeria has diversified what it produces more than what it exports. Many farms generate low yields, manufacturers operate with costly power and logistics, and too much employment is concentrated in activities with low returns. After six decades of growth, the decisive question is whether the economy can produce more value per worker and deliver rising real incomes.
Progress and the limits of reform
Nigeria’s history contains important examples of successful reform. Telecommunications liberalisation transformed access to communication and opened a major field for private investment. Banking and payments reforms widened the reach of financial services. Nigerian entrepreneurs have repeatedly shown that they can build competitive businesses when policy is credible and markets are open.
The country has also paid a high price for dependence on oil revenue, inconsistent policies and underinvestment in infrastructure. Oil price swings have repeatedly disrupted budgets and foreign exchange supply. Recessions, the pandemic, insecurity and global food and energy shocks exposed the economy’s vulnerabilities. The lesson is clear: a large market and abundant resources create opportunities, but productivity depends on reliable institutions, infrastructure and sound policy formulation and execution.
The present administration’s petrol subsidy removal, exchange rate reforms and revenue measures addressed longstanding fiscal and foreign exchange distortions. They were consequential decisions, and early macroeconomic results warrant recognition. Real GDP growth rose from 3.38% in 2024 to 3.87% in 2025, reaching 4.43% year on year in the second quarter of 2026. Headline inflation stood at 15.39% in August 2026, and the Central Bank reset its policy rate to 23% in September. Revenues, reserves and exchange rate stability have also improved markedly.
These gains provide a stronger foundation, but they are yet to translate sufficiently into relief for households and firms.
The welfare and productivity challenge
Inflation has eased, but prices remain far above their earlier levels. The combined effects of petrol price increases, exchange rate adjustment and global food and energy shocks have reduced purchasing power. Transport, food, electricity and other essentials take a larger share of household income. Businesses face the same pressures through higher input, distribution and financing costs.
This is why stabilisation must now give way to a determined productivity agenda. A farmer needs security, irrigation, storage and access roads to increase output. A manufacturer needs reliable electricity, efficient ports and predictable regulation to compete. A small business needs affordable working capital and customers with spending power. Without progress on these structural constraints, growth will remain too weak in jobs and real incomes, regardless of improvements in headline indicators.
CPPE urges the government to prioritise power supply, security in farming and commercial corridors, ports and logistics, agricultural yields, industrial competitiveness and skills relevant to enterprise. Public support for industry should be tied to investment, efficiency and export performance. The objective is to lower the cost of producing in Nigeria and expand the supply of goods and services that citizens can afford.
All tiers of government must deliver
The benefits of national reform will be realised largely where people live and businesses operate. The Federal Government must sustain macroeconomic stability and deliver national security, power and transport priorities. State governments must improve land administration, roads, investment approvals, schools and healthcare. Local governments must maintain community infrastructure, provide effective basic services and end arbitrary levies that burden small enterprises.
These responsibilities are connected. A federal highway cannot unlock agricultural production if state and local roads leave farms inaccessible. More public revenue will have limited value if clinics lack staff, schools lack teachers and businesses still provide their own power and water. Greater resources across the federation must therefore come with clearer spending priorities and public accountability.
The three tiers of government should deliver measurable outcomes: lower transport and production costs, higher farm yields, more reliable services, stronger learning and health outcomes, and more productive jobs. Citizens should be able to see where additional public resources went and what improved as a result.
At 66, Nigeria has the enterprise and resources to achieve far more. The priority is to convert the gains from reform into higher productivity—and to ensure that higher productivity is felt in the living standards of Nigerians.
Dr. Muda Yusuf
Chief Executive Officer
Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE)
29th September 2026